The market entered the weekend with a risk-on but fragile backdrop as U.S. stocks recovered Friday, but oil remained above $100 a barrel and Treasury yields near multi-decade highs (around 5.24%–5.26%). For crypto, the combination is a headwind with inflation data.
Bitcoin is now hovering near $83K over the weekend, while Ethereum is now stabilized at $2,500.
Market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, with the Crypto Fear and Greed Index hovering at 57 as traders closely monitor upcoming macroeconomic developments.
What Traders Should Watch Out for This Week
According to recent FOMC meeting minutes, policymakers remain focused on persistent inflation, with several members leaning toward another policy tightening before year-end as they evaluate incoming macro metrics.
Consequently, upcoming CPI data carry significant weight for market direction; an upside surprise could cement prolonged high rates, whereas softer figures might provide relief. Additionally, Thursday’s wholesale price figures and retail data will offer further clarity on inflationary trajectories.
Escalating US-Iran tension could disrupt Middle East energy flows, push oil and inflation expectations higher, keep Treasury yields elevated, and may lead to a risk-off headwind for crypto.
Here are the major economic indicators to watch out for this week:
- Oct 13: Existing home sales & monthly treasury balance
- Oct 14: CPI
- Oct 15: Empire State manufacturing survey, retail sales, weekly jobless Claims, PPI, manufacturing & trade: inventories, and Fed speech: Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh speaks
- Oct 16: Import prices, industrial production, and capacity utilization
