The biggest IPO in history is upon us.  

SpaceX — the rocket company that put a car in orbit and made reusable rockets routine — is set to begin trading on the Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX on June 12. 

At a fixed price of 135 dollars per share and a valuation of about 1.77 trillion dollars, it dwarfs every public offering that came before it, including Saudi Aramco’s record-breaking roughly 29 billion dollar raise in 2019.

For crypto traders, this moment matters more than it might seem. Here’s why — and how BTSE can help you make the most of it.

A Quick Look at Crypto Embracing TradFi

What Changed This Cycle

The wall between crypto and traditional finance has been quietly dismantled over the past two years.  

It started with the approval of the first spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024, which brought pension funds, family offices, and mainstream brokerage accounts into the crypto market en masse. 

Over time, spot Bitcoin products and related ETFs have attracted tens of billions of dollars in cumulative inflows, with some estimates putting total crypto ETF exposure above 100 billion dollars when including global products, reflecting how rapidly traditional capital has moved onshore into regulated vehicles.

But Bitcoin didn’t just gain legitimacy; it gained correlation as it started to trade along high-beta growth stocks.  

By early 2026, multiple studies and desk analyses were highlighting that Bitcoin’s correlation with major equity benchmarks like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 had risen materially, with some windows showing correlations in the 0.6–0.7 range. Grayscale and other research providers have previously pointed to Bitcoin–Nasdaq correlations in the 0.4–0.7 band over rolling periods.

In short, institutions now trade Bitcoin like a high-beta tech position. The same macro forces that drive names like Nvidia and Microsoft now move BTC, often faster and with sharper movements, especially since Bitcoin can be easily accessed around the globe, 24/7.  

On the flip side, crypto-native traders are also moving the other way — trading U.S. AI and tech stocks with the same momentum strategies they’re using on crypto. And non-U.S.-based traders increasingly expect to access tokenized stocks and stock perpetuals from the same platforms they trade crypto. 

For crypto exchanges bridging the gap, it’s less about asking “crypto vs. stocks” and more about letting users trade everything, on one platform, around the clock.

Key Things to Watch for the Rest of 2026

AI and tech stocks have seen a tremendous rally while Bitcoin has fallen by nearly a third since the beginning of the year.  

Some are questioning its correlation with stocks and raising concerns that tech stocks are siphoning funds from the crypto sector. The size of SpaceX’s IPO is massive, but will it lift other tech stocks and crypto, or take capital away from them?  

We take a deeper look below.

SpaceX’s index inclusion cascade 

Effective May 1, 2026, Nasdaq adopted a new “fast entry” rule for the Nasdaq-100 that allows newly listed companies that rank within the top 40 by market cap to enter the index within just 15 trading days, with the previous 10% float requirement removed. 

For a mega-cap like SpaceX, this means index funds tracking the Nasdaq-100 will be forced to buy SPCX, funded by mechanical selling across existing constituents like Nvidia, Apple, and Microsoft — a setup that can create volatility and opportunity.

Bitcoin’s reclaim of key levels — The 200-day EMA (often watched by traders around levels such as the low-70,000 dollar area in recent months) remains the primary signal for a trend reversal in many technical frameworks, with a decisive break above it historically marking transitions from corrective to impulsive phases in bull cycles.

AI stock momentum

The AI infrastructure trade is far from over. Market leaders such as Nvidia, Microsoft, Alphabet (Google), Meta Platforms, and Amazon continue to drive the Nasdaq and broader AI value chain higher, with pullbacks increasingly treated as opportunities by long-term allocators focused on AI capex and cloud growth. While short-term there may be some volatility, these players remain the most likely long-term beneficiaries of a sustained AI rally. 

Fed policy 

Both Bitcoin and tech stocks remain highly sensitive to rate expectations; prior episodes have shown that upside surprises in inflation and employment data can pressure risk assets, while dovish signals from the Fed tend to lift both equities and crypto simultaneously.

What Traders Can Do

The convergence of crypto and TradFi creates a genuine alpha opportunity for retail traders who can navigate both worlds from a single platform. Options include:

• Buying crypto (spot BTC, ETH, or AI tokens) as a leveraged expression of tech-sector bullish sentiment  
• Trading AI stock perpetuals to gain leveraged directional exposure to the companies driving the AI infrastructure boom — Nvidia, Microsoft, Google, Meta, and others — without leaving the crypto ecosystem  
• Hedging existing crypto positions against tech-sector volatility, especially around index rebalancing events like the Nasdaq-100 inclusion of SPCX under the fast-entry rules  
• Capitalizing on spillover volatility — the SpaceX IPO will move the whole Nasdaq index; traders positioned across both crypto and AI stock perps can navigate that turbulence from multiple angles simultaneously

How BTSE Does It

AI Stock Perpetuals: TradFi Exposure, Crypto Simplicity

BTSE offers perpetual contracts on the world’s leading AI and tech stocks, settled in USDT, tradable 24/7, and with no need for a traditional brokerage account.  

While the rest of the world debates whether to open a new account or wire funds to a brokerage, BTSE users can go long or short on Nvidia the same way they trade BTC — from the same wallet, in the same interface, any time of the day.

Our top AI stock perpetuals include the companies at the heart of the current tech and AI cycle:

• NVDA Perpetual — The AI infrastructure backbone; most sensitive to Nasdaq rebalancing flows  
• MSFT Perpetual — Azure AI growth; major Nasdaq-100 constituent facing index-driven flows  
• GOOGL Perpetual — DeepMind and Gemini; AI search revenue accelerating  
• META Perpetual — Llama models plus AI ad targeting; strong 2026 earnings momentum  
• AMZN Perpetual — AWS AI services; cloud infrastructure play  
• TSLA Perpetual — Musk halo effect amplified by SpaceX IPO proximity  
• AAPL Perpetual — Apple Intelligence rollout; Nasdaq-100 heavyweight  
• AMD Perpetual — Nvidia alternative; AI chip competition narrative  
• PLTR Perpetual — Government and enterprise AI adoption; high-beta AI play  
• COIN Perpetual — Crypto–TradFi bridge; directly correlated to both worlds

When the SpaceX IPO triggers Nasdaq-100 rebalancing and index funds begin selling existing constituents to fund SPCX purchases, every name on that list will be in motion under the new methodology that permits rapid inclusion of large IPOs. BTSE users won’t need to scramble across platforms to react — they’ll already be there.

Behind the Scenes: Our Technology

What makes BTSE different is not just its product list — it’s the infrastructure behind it.  

Our matching engine is built for high-frequency conditions, handling thousands of orders per second with low-latency execution across all asset classes simultaneously. Risk management runs at the engine level, meaning that margin, liquidation, and position sizing on AI stock perpetuals are handled with the same robustness as our crypto derivatives.

USDT settlement removes friction entirely. No currency conversion, no inter-account transfers, no waiting for banking hours. Whether you’re trading a BTC perpetual, an Nvidia perp, or both at once as a pair, it all happens in one wallet, on one screen.  

Our team has been operating in digital asset markets since the early institutional phase of the industry — through multiple cycles, multiple crises, and the full arc from niche experiment to mainstream asset class. That experience is built into the platform.

How Will SpaceX Impact the Market?

The Scale and Size of the IPO

To call this the largest IPO in history would be an understatement. SpaceX is targeting a roughly 75 billion dollar raise at a valuation of about 1.75–1.77 trillion dollars — nearly three times the previous record set by Saudi Aramco’s 2019 listing, which raised about 25–29 billion dollars. At 135 dollars per share, the company would immediately rank among the top seven most valuable publicly traded companies in the United States.

The company’s financials tell a nuanced story. According to recent coverage of its pre-IPO disclosures, SpaceX generated about 18.7 billion dollars in revenue in 2025 — with Starlink contributing around 11.4 billion dollars and accounting for the majority of top-line growth. 

Starlink has been reported as the only consistently profitable GAAP segment, while the group as a whole remains loss-making on a GAAP basis as SpaceX continues to invest heavily in Starship development and AI infrastructure.

One structural detail worth noting: reports on SpaceX’s SEC filings indicate that existing shareholders, including Elon Musk, face an unusually long lockup period of about 366 days, alongside a relatively small initial float estimated in the low-single-digit percentage of outstanding shares. Combined with the record-setting size of the capital raise, this creates the conditions for significant volatility in early trading.

Musk has also pushed for something unusual: according to IPO commentary, press reports suggest as much as 30% of IPO shares could be allocated to retail investors via platforms such as Schwab, Fidelity, Robinhood, SoFi, and E*TRADE. This offering is deliberately designed as a retail event, not just an institutional one.

Nasdaq-100 vs. S&P 500: A Tale of Two Index Rules

Perhaps the most market-moving element of the SpaceX IPO — especially for active traders — is what it triggers in passive fund flows.  

Effective May 1, 2026, Nasdaq revised its Nasdaq-100 inclusion rules, adopting a “fast entry” mechanism that allows any newly listed company ranking in the top 40 by market cap to enter the index after only 15 trading days, eliminating the previous minimum float and seasoning requirements. 

This change was widely viewed as preparing the benchmark for mega-IPOs like SpaceX, which can now be added to the Nasdaq-100 quickly once trading begins.

For SpaceX, this means Nasdaq-100 inclusion could occur as soon as late June or early July 2026. The index is tracked by hundreds of products with hundreds of billions of dollars in combined assets under management, meaning index funds must mechanically buy SPCX — funded by equivalent selling of current constituents. 

That selling will hit the AI names hardest, simply because they are the largest weights; Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, and Alphabet face potentially significant passive selling precisely when retail FOMO is peaking around SPCX.

The S&P 500 tells a different story. S&P Dow Jones Indices has historically required sustained GAAP profitability for index inclusion and has not yet relaxed those rules for SpaceX, which has reported sizable GAAP losses as it invests in Starship and AI infrastructure. 

This creates a split: SPCX will likely be in the Nasdaq-100 but not the S&P 500 in the near term — a divergence that gives QQQ-tracking and SPY-tracking portfolios meaningfully different exposure to SpaceX and defers a substantial amount of additional passive demand.

Estimated Performance: What Wall Street Is Saying

Opinion is divided, but near-term sentiment skews bullish.  

Morningstar’s analysis of SpaceX’s pre-IPO financials has flagged that the company screens as “significantly overvalued” at valuations around 1.7 trillion dollars, noting the heavy reliance on novel and still-unproven technologies. 

However, the same work also notes that with a relatively small free float, fast-track Nasdaq-100 inclusion, and broad investment bank support, the stock price could remain elevated and potentially rise in the early post-IPO period.

ARK Invest, led by Cathie Wood, has publicly outlined scenarios where SpaceX reaches 2.5–3 trillion dollars in value by 2030, contingent on Starlink’s dominance in satellite internet and continued progress on Mars logistics and AI infrastructure. 

Other Wall Street commentary, including analysts cited by outlets like Bloomberg and specialty fintech media, has floated the possibility that intense demand from both institutions and retail could push the stock toward multi-trillion-dollar territory in exuberant scenarios.

The revenue picture supports cautious optimism: analysts project mid-20s billions of revenue for 2026, with Starlink as the profitable core and xAI’s compute business — including large-scale cloud and supercomputing deals — as an incremental growth driver in the second half of the year. As always, execution on these ambitious plans will determine whether early valuations are justified or stretched.

Impact on Retail Investors

The SpaceX IPO is designed with retail investors in mind — but direct access to SPCX shares still requires navigating a traditional brokerage, regional restrictions, and an IPO allocation process that tends to favor institutions regardless of stated intent.  

BTSE offers a different angle. 

As the Nasdaq-100 rebalancing cascade plays out under the new inclusion rules, the most liquid and actionable opportunities won’t necessarily be in SPCX itself — they will often be in the AI and tech names being sold to fund its inclusion. 

Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, and Alphabet are precisely the stocks that passive funds will be adjusting at scale, under time pressure, regardless of their fundamentals.

BTSE’s AI stock perpetuals let you express views on those names with leverage, in USDT, from the same account you already use for BTC and other crypto assets.  

The ripple effects will also extend into crypto. Given the increasingly tight relationship between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq over recent cycles, a volatile index rebalancing event is likely to produce turbulence in BTC and ETH as well. 

Traders who can operate across both worlds simultaneously — holding an Nvidia perp in one direction and a BTC position in another, for example — are better equipped to navigate that environment than those locked into a single asset class.

Outlook for the Rest of the Year

Parsing the Recent Dip — and Why We’re Optimistic

June has been a challenging month for crypto.  

Bitcoin has recently broken below key price milestones after a euphoric start to the year, even as U.S. stocks have pushed to or near record highs, creating a divergence that has unsettled some investors. AI tokens like Humanity Protocol and Ethena have offered pockets of strength following high-profile listings and integrations, but broad sentiment remains cautious.

Context matters here. The Q1 2026 drawdown — one of the most punishing since the FTX collapse — saw tens of billions of dollars in liquidations across leveraged products as BTC and ETH both corrected sharply from their peaks. The market entered 2026 with euphoria and received a reality check; the healing process takes time.

But the structural case remains intact — and arguably stronger than ever:

• Stablecoin market capitalization has pushed to all-time highs in 2026, with circulating supply estimates exceeding 300 billion dollars, reflecting sustained on-chain dollar demand regardless of price action  
• Corporate and institutional treasuries have continued to add Bitcoin exposure even during ETF outflow periods, signaling that long-horizon conviction is not easily shaken  
• RWA tokenization has climbed into the tens of billions of dollars, demonstrating real on-chain usage of traditional financial instruments  
• On-chain metrics tied to AI and agentic commerce, such as the number of AI-agent–driven transactions, have surged, pointing to a new structural demand driver for blockchain infrastructure  
• Multiple surveys of global institutional investors show a majority planning to expand digital asset exposure in 2026, with many targeting allocations above 5% of AUM  

Bitcoin reclaiming its 200-day EMA around the low-70,000 dollar region remains the clearest technical signal to watch for a durable trend reversal. The SpaceX IPO — whatever short-term turbulence it creates — is ultimately a massive injection of risk appetite into global markets via one of the most anticipated listings in history.  

When the world’s most anticipated company begins trading, it tends to lift the mood across the entire tech-and-growth spectrum. Crypto, now tightly linked to that spectrum, stands to benefit.  

The second half of 2026 is shaping up to be defined by a single theme: the mainstreaming of multi-asset, tech-first retail investing. 

SpaceX isn’t just going public — it is becoming the symbol of a new era in which aerospace, AI infrastructure, and crypto have blurred into one interconnected risk asset category, one that moves fast, rewards the well-positioned, and waits for no one.