{"id":4574,"date":"2022-07-15T12:08:42","date_gmt":"2022-07-15T04:08:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.btse.com\/?p=4574"},"modified":"2023-03-07T05:50:05","modified_gmt":"2023-03-07T05:50:05","slug":"the-crypto-winter-what-we-know-so-far","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.btse.com\/blog\/the-crypto-winter-what-we-know-so-far\/","title":{"rendered":"The Crypto Winter &#8211; What We Know So Far"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em>Written by Antonio Liao, Researcher at BTSE<\/em><\/p>\n<p><b>At a Glance:\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">There is no sugarcoating to the current market conditions, especially when crypto markets were <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/cryptopotato.com\/industry-experts-remain-unfazed-by-70-crypto-market-crash\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">down roughly 70% <\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">from their all-time highs in November 2021. <\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Highly similar to equities markets, the crypto market is heavily affected by macroeconomic and geopolitical events such as inflation, interest rate hikes, and armed conflicts. <\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">From top lending platforms to multi-national hedge funds, reports of liquidations and insolvencies emerge almost on a daily basis, while leading crypto exchanges and companies resort to mass layoffs and cutting marketing deals to curtail operational costs. <\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">On the regulatory end, this crypto market crash will catalyze stricter regulatory efforts across jurisdictions.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h2><b>Yes, We Are in the Worst Crypto Winter<\/b><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The news is in: Bitcoin, the largest crypto by market capitalization, just <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.theblock.co\/post\/155035\/bitcoin-registers-its-worst-quarter-in-11-years-amid-crypto-market-tumult?utm_source=rss&amp;utm_medium=rss\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">registered<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> its worst quarterly loss in 11 years, exacerbating the worst crypto winter ever seen.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">We know that the crypto market is known for its volatility, but this is an unprecedented market downturn that we have so far seen the crypto market capitalization plummeting from roughly $3 trillion to $940 billion in less than eight months.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">With Bitcoin being down 35% and Ether being down 43% in 2022 from their highs, it is now an indisputable fact that we are in a bear market. From retail investors to highly-established institutional investors and deep-pocketed hedge funds, their crypto portfolios continue to dwindle in value amid this market downturn.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">While the crypto winter is still a rapidly developing story abounded with speculations and rumors, we will talk about some significant events and trends we have observed so far to keep abreast of the latest developments.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><b>Plenty of Macro Pain\u00a0<\/b><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Seeming detached from the greater scheme of things, crypto this time can no longer escape from all the mess happening around it. From the <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/blog.btse.com\/should-crypto-investors-care-about-geopolitics\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Russia-Ukraine conflict<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> to inflation, every major global event has cast a shadow on the crypto market.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">With crypto becoming an increasingly popular investment tool, the skyrocketing inflation rate and a looming recession are forcing investors, particularly retail investors, to tighten their purses when investing in something as volatile and risky as crypto.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Faced with the highest inflation in over 40 years, the Fed and most central banks are raising <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.weforum.org\/agenda\/2022\/06\/rates-inflation-federal-reserve-united-states\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">interest rates <\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">at an unprecedented rate. With a further rise of 50-75 basis points on the horizon, lending and borrowing in traditional financial markets are largely discouraged, as more people veered towards saving to earn higher interest.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Crypto mining is another often overlooked activity that can affect the price of crypto, given its susceptibility to macroeconomic developments. As public and private miners suffer <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/blockworks.co\/bitcoin-mining-economics-explained\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">soaring operational costs<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, specifically energy costs, many are now forced to offload their mined crypto to stay afloat in this bear market. As the price of Bitcoin fluctuates, it is no news for miners to sell more than what they mined, which puts more pressure on crypto prices.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">That said, given that there is currently no sight of end to recession and inflation in sight, it is highly likely that more regulatory measures will be taken to dampen the long-term impacts of these economic events. The protracted conflict between Ukraine and Russia can also bring more economic pains with higher energy costs.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><b>Margin Calls &amp; Liquidations\u00a0<\/b><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Perhaps the most eye-catching developments apart from the plummeting crypto prices are those involving insolvency and forced liquidations of high-profile funds and lending protocols.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Unlike the implosion of Terra that took place in the early days of the crypto winter, various \u201ccrypto darlings\u201d such as Three Arrows Capital, BlockFi, Celsius, and Voyager have fallen victim to the macro crypto downturn.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Of course, the stories behind the fall from grace of these highly successful platforms are not that simple. In fact, they are all intertwined and related to each other in some way.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Perhaps the worst hit \u201ccrypto darling\u201d is Three Arrows Capital (3AC), who was once among the largest and most successful crypto hedge funds. With over $10 billion in assets under management during its heyday, 3AC\u2019s collapse began to spiral with the Terra debacle, in which the fund suffered a loss of roughly $200 million following UST\u2019s crash, but 3AC\u2019s trouble did not end there.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">As the market condition continued to deteriorate and 3AC\u2019s insolvency fears spread, a number of exchanges also started to <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/decrypt.co\/103153\/bitmex-finblox-deribit-others-exiting-three-arrows-capital-3ac-insolvency-fears\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">liquidate 3AC\u2019s positions<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> after the fund failed to meet its margin calls with over-leveraged mismatches. On 27 June, a court in the British Virgin Islands <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/news.sky.com\/story\/crypto-hedge-fund-three-arrows-capital-plunges-into-liquidation-12642402\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">ordered<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> the liquidation of 3AC to pay down its debts after Voyager Digital <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.prnewswire.com\/news-releases\/voyager-digital-provides-market-update-301575492.html\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">issued<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> a notice of default to 3AC.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">What is even more significant about 3AC\u2019s collapse is the spillover effect on the broader DeFi ecosystem, as the fund acts as a major investor for numerous projects and companies and holds leveraged long positions with lending providers such as BlockFi, Celsius, and Genesis.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Today, most companies and projects related to 3AC are facing certain liquidation challenges, followed by talks of mergers and acquisitions from better-performing players.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">That said, the impacts of the crypto winter are still rapidly unfolding, with news of withdrawal suspensions and restructuring emerging every day. Whether or not we will see an ever-consolidated DeFi market landscape remains to be seen.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h2><b>No One Is Spared\u00a0\u00a0<\/b><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In this crypto winter, those who are connected to the crypto space, regardless of their role or amount of crypto holdings, have been affected in some way or another.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Hammered by the tanking crypto prices and concerned about the grim macroeconomic outlook, crypto exchanges are now faced with tough choices to dampen the impacts of a bear market. Unfortunately, the most effective and timely measure for these exchanges is mass layoffs.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Since the crypto winter began, <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/decrypt.co\/103072\/who-is-firing-and-hiring-during-bitcoin-bear-market\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">news of layoffs<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> from several exchanges, such as Crypto.com, Coinbase, Gemini, Bitpanda, Bitso, and Banxa, began to emerge as they aim to curtail operational costs while trade volume plummeted. For Coinbase, the first crypto company to join the Fortune 500 list rescinded accepted offers for onboarding employees because it \u201cover-hired\u201d during the crypto bull run.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The effort to curtail operational costs does not stop at mass layoffs as crypto companies look to drop marketing deals. Compared to paycheques, marketing cost is overwhelmingly the largest expense for most crypto companies, with billions of dollars spent on sponsorships and naming rights. With the crypto winter hammering on revenues, numerous marketing deal talks have either been <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/nypost.com\/2022\/06\/20\/ftx-other-crypto-firms-ditch-sports-deals-as-market-collapses\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">dropped or postponed<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">On a more positive note, while some companies have hit the brakes on hiring and marketing deals, other companies such as FTX, Binance, Kraken, and Opensea are tapping the burgeoning pool of talents and <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/decrypt.co\/103072\/who-is-firing-and-hiring-during-bitcoin-bear-market\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">reasserting their hiring efforts<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> to accelerate growth.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h2><b>A Tighter Regulatory Grip?\u00a0\u00a0<\/b><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Perhaps one of the most discussed topics in the crypto space as stories of insolvency and liquidations unfold is regulatory directions across jurisdictions.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">As a loosely regulated sector, crypto lending and trading are not FDIC-insured to provide the level of protection we see in traditional finance. Since the beginning of the Terra debacle and following into the crypto winter, regulators and authorities have voiced their intentions to prompt more regulatory oversight for the sector.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Here are a couple of more prominent examples of what we know so far:\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In the wake of the Terra debacle, the US Congress <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/cryptocurrency-technology-congress-government-and-politics-7d2e5c6ba2bfc66cc7b77954074d6c57\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">introduced<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> a bipartisan crypto bill &#8211; the Responsible Financial Innovation Act &#8211; that is considered the most comprehensive crypto bill to date.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Some of the key terms of the bill focus on the legal definition of crypto assets and virtual currencies, guidance on crypto payment and taxation, whether digital assets are commodities or securities, and regulatory clarity specifically for stablecoins and their issuers.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">As the crypto winter unfolds and casualties continue accumulating, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) is eyeing <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mas.gov.sg\/news\/parliamentary-replies\/2022\/reply-to-parliamentary-question-on-restrictions-on-cryptocurrency-trading-platforms-to-protect-members-of-public\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">more safeguards<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> for retail crypto investors. In January 2022, MAS issued guidelines restricting how crypto companies could advertise to the public. Announced in early July, the host of additional safeguarding measures may include limiting retail participation and rules on the use of leverage in crypto transactions.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Meanwhile, the EU has recently <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.euronews.com\/next\/2022\/07\/01\/eu-agrees-on-landmark-mica-crypto-regulation-in-wake-of-terra-meltdown-and-bitcoin-plunge#:~:text=The%20EU's%20crypto%20rules%20%22will,he%20said%20in%20a%20statement.\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">agreed<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> on a package of rules for the crypto industry, a landmark move amid heightened market turmoil. The highly complex and comprehensive set of rules will target various facets of the crypto industry, such as business registration, customer protection, the legal entity crypto assets, transparency requirements for stablecoins, and carbon footprints from crypto mining.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">So far, the crypto space remains loosely regulated compared to traditional financial markets. However, the burgeoning crypto adoption and increasingly volatile market are undoubtedly facilitating the tightening of regulatory grip in the space.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h2><b>An End in Sight?\u00a0<\/b><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">As blockchain analysis firm <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/insights.glassnode.com\/2022-bear-of-historic-proportions\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Glassnode<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> puts it, the current crypto bear market is \u201cthe worst ever recorded,\u201d with Bitcoin dipping well below its 200-day moving average. Whether you might argue that FUD has permeated the crypto or not, the demise of some of crypto\u2019s biggest names clearly suggests that as Warren Buffet once said, \u201cwhen the tide goes out, you get to see who is swimming naked.\u201d Unfortunately, not only are institutions \u201cswimming naked,\u201d plenty of retail investors are as well.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Meanwhile, judging from the recent developments in the crypto market and the directions of the price of BTC, it has become clearer than ever that there is a mildly growing correlation with the broader equity market, especially with more people considering crypto as an investment.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Throughout the brief history of crypto, seasoned investors and crypto enthusiasts are no strangers to crypto crashes, as 2011, 2013, and 2018 all underwent major crashes in the space, albeit none as severe and pervasive as the 2022 crash.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Although we cannot predict when exactly this winter will end or how many more casualties will be incurred, the DeFi and Web3 communities are showing their endurance and aspiration to thrive. With an ever-increasing need for decentralization, dApps across the board, such as GameFi and blue-chip NFTs, <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/news\/dappradar-q2-industry-report-shows-153319747.html\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">have posted tremendous resilience<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> amid extreme market turmoil.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p><i>Our aim is to create a platform that offers users the most enjoyable trading experience. If you have any feedback, please reach out to us at\u00a0<\/i><a href=\"mailto:feedback@btse.com\"><i>feedback@btse.com<\/i><\/a><i> or on Twitter @BTSE_Official.<\/i><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Note: BTSE Blog contents are intended solely to provide varying insights and perspectives. Unless otherwise noted, they do not represent the views of BTSE and should in no way be treated as investment advice. Markets are volatile, and trading brings rewards and risks. Trade with caution.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Written by Antonio Liao, Researcher at BTSE At a Glance:\u00a0 There is no sugarcoating to the current market conditions, especially when crypto markets were down roughly 70% from their all-time highs in November 2021. Highly similar to equities markets, the crypto market is heavily affected by macroeconomic and geopolitical events such as inflation, interest rate [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":5663,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4574","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-market-insights"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.3 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The Crypto Winter - What We Know So Far &#8212; BTSE Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.btse.com\/blog\/the-crypto-winter-what-we-know-so-far\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Crypto Winter - What We Know So Far\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Written by Antonio Liao, Researcher at BTSE At a Glance:\u00a0 There is no sugarcoating to the current market conditions, especially when crypto markets were down roughly 70% from their all-time highs in November 2021. 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