{"id":16492,"date":"2026-06-11T03:51:50","date_gmt":"2026-06-11T03:51:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.btse.com\/blog\/?p=16492"},"modified":"2026-06-11T06:49:18","modified_gmt":"2026-06-11T06:49:18","slug":"spacex-ipo-crypto-ai-stock-perpetuals","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.btse.com\/blog\/spacex-ipo-crypto-ai-stock-perpetuals\/","title":{"rendered":"How Will SpaceX Reshape the Market and Opportunities for Retail Traders? BTSE Explains"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400; font-family: inter; font-size: 14pt; color: #000000;\">The biggest IPO in history is upon us.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: inter; font-size: 14pt; color: #000000;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">SpaceX \u2014 the rocket company that put a car in orbit and <\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-family: inter; font-size: 14pt;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2026\/06\/03\/spacex-ipo-stock-price-roadshow-musk.html\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">made reusable rockets routine<\/span><\/a><\/span><span style=\"font-family: inter; font-size: 14pt; color: #000000;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> \u2014 is set to begin trading on the Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX on June 12.\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: inter; font-size: 14pt; color: #000000;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">At a fixed price of 135 dollars per share and a valuation of about 1.77 trillion dollars, it <\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-family: inter; font-size: 14pt;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2026\/06\/03\/technology\/spacex-ipo-pricing.html\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">dwarfs every public offering<\/span><\/a><\/span><span style=\"font-family: inter; font-size: 14pt; color: #000000;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> that came before it, including Saudi Aramco&#8217;s record-breaking roughly 29 billion dollar raise in 2019.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400; font-family: inter; font-size: 14pt; color: #000000;\">For crypto traders, this moment matters more than it might seem. Here&#8217;s why \u2014 and how BTSE can help you make the most of it.<\/span><\/p>\n<h1><span style=\"font-weight: 400; font-family: inter; color: #000000; line-height: 1.6;\">A Quick Look at Crypto Embracing TradFi<\/span><\/h1>\n<h2><span style=\"font-weight: 400; font-family: inter; color: #000000; line-height: 1.6;\">What Changed This Cycle<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400; font-family: inter; color: #000000; font-size: 14pt;\">The wall between crypto and traditional finance has been quietly dismantled over the past two years.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: inter; color: #000000; font-size: 14pt;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">It started with the <\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-family: inter; font-size: 14pt;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/technology\/us-etf-launches-set-early-record-2024-helped-by-spot-bitcoin-funds-2024-01-18\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">approval of the first spot Bitcoin ETFs<\/span><\/a><\/span><span style=\"font-family: inter; color: #000000; font-size: 14pt;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> in January 2024, which brought pension funds, family offices, and mainstream brokerage accounts into the crypto market en masse.\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400; font-family: inter; color: #000000; font-size: 14pt;\">Over time, spot Bitcoin products and related ETFs have attracted tens of billions of dollars in cumulative inflows, with some estimates putting total crypto ETF exposure above 100 billion dollars when including global products, reflecting how rapidly traditional capital has moved onshore into regulated vehicles.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400; font-family: inter; color: #000000; font-size: 14pt;\">But Bitcoin didn&#8217;t just gain legitimacy; it gained correlation as it started to trade along high-beta growth stocks.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: inter; color: #000000; font-size: 14pt;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">By early 2026, multiple studies and desk analyses were highlighting that Bitcoin&#8217;s correlation with major equity benchmarks like the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq-100 had risen materially, with some windows showing correlations in the 0.6\u20130.7 range. Grayscale and other research providers have previously pointed to <\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-family: inter; font-size: 14pt;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.kucoin.com\/news\/flash\/bitcoin-shows-stronger-correlation-with-tech-stocks-than-gold-grayscale-reports\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Bitcoin\u2013Nasdaq correlations<\/span><\/a><\/span><span style=\"font-family: inter; color: #000000; font-size: 14pt;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> in the 0.4\u20130.7 band over rolling periods.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400; font-family: inter; color: #000000; font-size: 14pt;\">In short, institutions now trade Bitcoin like a high-beta tech position. The same macro forces that drive names like Nvidia and Microsoft now move BTC, often faster and with sharper movements, especially since Bitcoin can be easily accessed around the globe, 24\/7.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400; font-family: inter; color: #000000; font-size: 14pt;\">On the flip side, crypto-native traders are also moving the other way \u2014 trading U.S. AI and tech stocks with the same momentum strategies they&#8217;re using on crypto. And non-U.S.-based traders increasingly expect to access tokenized stocks and stock perpetuals from the same platforms they trade crypto.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400; font-family: inter; color: #000000; font-size: 14pt;\">For crypto exchanges bridging the gap, it&#8217;s less about asking &#8220;crypto vs. stocks&#8221; and more about letting users trade everything, on one platform, around the clock.<\/span><\/p>\n<h1><span style=\"font-weight: 400; font-family: inter; color: #000000; line-height: 1.6;\">Key Things to Watch for the Rest of 2026<\/span><\/h1>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: inter; font-size: 14pt;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">AI and <\/span><\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.btse.com\/blog\/tech-perps-just-got-more-interesting-with-palantir-amd-and-netflix\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">tech stocks<\/span><\/a> <span style=\"color: #000000;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">have seen a tremendous rally while Bitcoin has fallen by nearly a third since the beginning of the year.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400; font-family: inter; color: #000000; font-size: 14pt;\">Some are questioning its correlation with stocks and raising concerns that tech stocks are siphoning funds from the crypto sector. The size of SpaceX\u2019s IPO is massive, but will it lift other tech stocks and crypto, or take capital away from them?\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400; font-family: inter; color: #000000; font-size: 14pt;\">We take a deeper look below.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span style=\"font-weight: 400; font-family: inter; color: #000000; line-height: 1.6;\">SpaceX&#8217;s index inclusion cascade\u00a0<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><span style=\"font-family: inter; color: #000000;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Effective May 1, 2026, Nasdaq <\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-family: inter;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ashurst.com\/en\/insights\/nasdaq-proposes-new-fast-entry-rule-for-the-nasdaq-100-index\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">adopted<\/span><\/a><\/span><span style=\"font-family: inter; color: #000000;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> a new &#8220;fast entry&#8221; rule for the Nasdaq-100 that allows newly listed companies that rank within the top 40 by market cap to enter the index within just 15 trading days, with the previous 10% float requirement removed.\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><span style=\"font-family: inter; color: #000000;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">For a mega-cap like SpaceX, this means index funds tracking the Nasdaq-100 will be forced to buy SPCX, funded by mechanical selling across existing constituents like <\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-family: inter;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.btse.com\/blog\/3-mega-cap-tech-stocks-traders-should-watch-right-now\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Nvidia, Apple<\/span><\/a><\/span><span style=\"font-family: inter;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">,<\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-family: inter; color: #000000;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> and Microsoft \u2014 a setup that can create volatility and opportunity.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400; font-family: inter; color: #000000; font-size: 14pt;\">Bitcoin&#8217;s reclaim of key levels \u2014 The 200-day EMA (often watched by traders around levels such as the low-70,000 dollar area in recent months) remains the primary signal for a trend reversal in many technical frameworks, with a decisive break above it historically marking transitions from corrective to impulsive phases in bull cycles.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span style=\"font-weight: 400; font-family: inter; color: #000000; line-height: 1.6;\">AI stock momentum<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: inter; color: #000000; font-size: 14pt;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The AI infrastructure trade is far from over. Market leaders such as Nvidia, Microsoft, Alphabet (Google), Meta Platforms, and Amazon continue to drive the Nasdaq and broader AI value chain <\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-family: inter; font-size: 14pt;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.justetf.com\/en\/asset-comparisons\/index-comparisons\/bitcoin-vs-nasdaq-100\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">higher<\/span><\/a><\/span><span style=\"font-family: inter; color: #000000; font-size: 14pt;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, with pullbacks increasingly treated as opportunities by long-term allocators focused on AI capex and cloud growth. While short-term there may be some volatility, these players remain the most likely long-term beneficiaries of a sustained AI rally.\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span style=\"font-weight: 400; font-family: inter; color: #000000; line-height: 1.6;\">Fed policy\u00a0<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400; font-family: inter; color: #000000; font-size: 14pt;\">Both Bitcoin and tech stocks remain highly sensitive to rate expectations; prior episodes have shown that upside surprises in inflation and employment data can pressure risk assets, while dovish signals from the Fed tend to lift both equities and crypto simultaneously.<\/span><\/p>\n<h1><span style=\"font-weight: 400; font-family: inter; color: #000000; line-height: 1.6;\">What Traders Can Do<\/span><\/h1>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400; font-family: inter; color: #000000; font-size: 14pt;\">The convergence of crypto and TradFi creates a genuine alpha opportunity for retail traders who can navigate both worlds from a single platform. Options include:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400; font-family: inter; color: #000000; font-size: 14pt;\">Buying crypto (spot BTC, ETH, or AI tokens) as a leveraged expression of tech-sector bullish sentiment\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400; font-family: inter; color: #000000; font-size: 14pt;\">Trading <a href=\"https:\/\/www.btse.com\/blog\/ai-stocks-perps-btse\/\">AI stock perpetuals<\/a> to gain leveraged directional exposure to the companies driving the AI infrastructure boom \u2014 Nvidia, Microsoft, Google, Meta, and others \u2014 without leaving the crypto ecosystem\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400; font-family: inter; color: #000000; font-size: 14pt;\">Hedging existing crypto positions against tech-sector volatility, especially around index rebalancing events like the Nasdaq-100 inclusion of SPCX under the fast-entry rules\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400; font-family: inter; color: #000000; font-size: 14pt;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400; font-family: inter; color: #000000; font-size: 14pt;\">Capitalizing on spillover volatility \u2014 the SpaceX IPO will move the whole Nasdaq index; traders positioned across both crypto and AI stock perps can navigate that turbulence from multiple angles simultaneously<\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h1><span style=\"font-weight: 400; font-family: inter; color: #000000; line-height: 1.6;\"><br \/>\nHow BTSE Does It<\/span><\/h1>\n<h2><span style=\"font-weight: 400; font-family: inter; color: #000000; line-height: 1.6;\">AI Stock Perpetuals: TradFi Exposure, Crypto Simplicity<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: inter; color: #000000; font-size: 14pt;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">BTSE offers perpetual contracts on the world&#8217;s leading <\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-family: inter; font-size: 14pt;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.btse.com\/blog\/stock-and-gold-perpetual-futures-are-now-available-for-trading-on-btse\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">AI and tech stocks<\/span><\/a><\/span><span style=\"font-family: inter; color: #000000; font-size: 14pt;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, settled in USDT, tradable 24\/7, and with no need for a traditional brokerage account.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400; font-family: inter; color: #000000; font-size: 14pt;\">While the rest of the world debates whether to open a new account or wire funds to a brokerage, BTSE users can go long or short on Nvidia the same way they trade BTC \u2014 from the same wallet, in the same interface, any time of the day.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400; font-family: inter; color: #000000; font-size: 14pt;\">Our top AI stock perpetuals include the companies at the heart of the current tech and AI cycle:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400; font-family: inter; color: #000000; font-size: 14pt;\">NVDA Perpetual \u2014 The AI infrastructure backbone; most sensitive to Nasdaq rebalancing flows\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400; font-family: inter; color: #000000; font-size: 14pt;\">MSFT Perpetual \u2014 Azure AI growth; major Nasdaq-100 constituent facing index-driven flows\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400; font-family: inter; color: #000000; font-size: 14pt;\">GOOGL Perpetual \u2014 DeepMind and Gemini; AI search revenue accelerating\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400; font-family: inter; color: #000000; font-size: 14pt;\">META Perpetual \u2014 Llama models plus AI ad targeting; strong 2026 earnings momentum\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400; font-family: inter; color: #000000; font-size: 14pt;\">AMZN Perpetual \u2014 AWS AI services; cloud infrastructure play\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400; font-family: inter; color: #000000; font-size: 14pt;\">TSLA Perpetual \u2014 Musk halo effect amplified by SpaceX IPO proximity\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400; font-family: inter; color: #000000; font-size: 14pt;\">AAPL Perpetual \u2014 Apple Intelligence rollout; Nasdaq-100 heavyweight\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400; font-family: inter; color: #000000; font-size: 14pt;\">AMD Perpetual \u2014 Nvidia alternative; AI chip competition narrative\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400; font-family: inter; color: #000000; font-size: 14pt;\">PLTR Perpetual \u2014 Government and enterprise AI adoption; high-beta AI play\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400; font-family: inter; color: #000000; font-size: 14pt;\">COIN Perpetual \u2014 Crypto\u2013TradFi bridge; directly correlated to both worlds<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400; font-family: inter; color: #000000; font-size: 14pt;\"><br \/>\nWhen the SpaceX IPO triggers Nasdaq-100 rebalancing and index funds begin selling existing constituents to fund SPCX purchases, every name on that list will be in motion under the new methodology that permits rapid inclusion of large IPOs. BTSE users won&#8217;t need to scramble across platforms to react \u2014 they&#8217;ll already be there.<\/span><\/p>\n<h1><span style=\"font-weight: 400; font-family: inter; color: #000000; line-height: 1.6;\">Behind the Scenes: Our Technology<\/span><\/h1>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400; font-family: inter; font-size: 14pt; color: #000000;\">What makes BTSE different is not just its product list \u2014 it&#8217;s the infrastructure behind it.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: inter; font-size: 14pt; color: #000000;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Our matching engine is built for high-frequency conditions, handling thousands of orders per second with low-latency execution across all asset classes simultaneously. Risk management runs at the engine level, meaning that margin, liquidation, and position sizing on AI stock perpetuals are <\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-family: inter; font-size: 14pt;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.btse.com\/blog\/stock-perps-on-btse-the-10-questions-traders-ask-most\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">handled<\/span><\/a><\/span><span style=\"font-family: inter; font-size: 14pt; color: #000000;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> with the same robustness as our crypto derivatives.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400; font-family: inter; font-size: 14pt; color: #000000;\">USDT settlement removes friction entirely. No currency conversion, no inter-account transfers, no waiting for banking hours. Whether you&#8217;re trading a BTC perpetual, an Nvidia perp, or both at once as a pair, it all happens in one wallet, on one screen.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400; font-family: inter; font-size: 14pt; color: #000000;\">Our team has been operating in digital asset markets since the early institutional phase of the industry \u2014 through multiple cycles, multiple crises, and the full arc from niche experiment to mainstream asset class. That experience is built into the platform.<\/span><\/p>\n<h1><span style=\"font-weight: 400; font-family: inter; color: #000000; line-height: 1.6;\">How Will SpaceX Impact the Market?<\/span><\/h1>\n<h2><span style=\"font-weight: 400; font-family: inter; color: #000000; line-height: 1.6;\">The Scale and Size of the IPO<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400; font-family: inter; color: #000000; font-size: 14pt;\">To call this the largest IPO in history would be an understatement. SpaceX is targeting a roughly 75 billion dollar raise at a valuation of about 1.75\u20131.77 trillion dollars \u2014 nearly three times the previous record set by Saudi Aramco\u2019s 2019 listing, which raised about 25\u201329 billion dollars. At 135 dollars per share, the company would immediately rank among the top seven most valuable publicly traded companies in the United States.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: inter; color: #000000; font-size: 14pt;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The company&#8217;s financials tell a nuanced story. According to recent coverage of its pre-IPO disclosures, SpaceX <\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-family: inter; font-size: 14pt;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/es.tradingview.com\/news\/stocktwits:e371a10cc094b:0-spacex-ipo-takes-off-firm-highlights-starlink-s-1-2b-q1-profit-and-10\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">generated<\/span><\/a><\/span><span style=\"font-family: inter; color: #000000; font-size: 14pt;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> about 18.7 billion dollars in revenue in 2025 \u2014 with Starlink contributing around 11.4 billion dollars and accounting for the majority of top-line growth.\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: inter; color: #000000; font-size: 14pt;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Starlink has been <\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-family: inter; font-size: 14pt;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/markets\/stocks\/articles\/starlink-now-drives-majority-spacexs-180000267.html\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">reported<\/span><\/a><\/span><span style=\"font-family: inter; color: #000000; font-size: 14pt;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> as the only consistently profitable GAAP segment, while the group as a whole remains loss-making on a GAAP basis as SpaceX continues to invest heavily in Starship development and AI infrastructure.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400; font-family: inter; color: #000000; font-size: 14pt;\">One structural detail worth noting: reports on SpaceX\u2019s SEC filings indicate that existing shareholders, including Elon Musk, face an unusually long lockup period of about 366 days, alongside a relatively small initial float estimated in the low-single-digit percentage of outstanding shares. Combined with the record-setting size of the capital raise, this creates the conditions for significant volatility in early trading.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400; font-family: inter; color: #000000; font-size: 14pt;\">Musk has also pushed for something unusual: according to IPO commentary, press reports suggest as much as 30% of IPO shares could be allocated to retail investors via platforms such as Schwab, Fidelity, Robinhood, SoFi, and E*TRADE. This offering is deliberately designed as a retail event, not just an institutional one.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span style=\"font-weight: 400; font-family: inter; color: #000000; line-height: 1.6;\">Nasdaq-100 vs. S&amp;P 500: A Tale of Two Index Rules<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400; font-family: inter; color: #000000; font-size: 14pt;\">Perhaps the most market-moving element of the SpaceX IPO \u2014 especially for active traders \u2014 is what it triggers in passive fund flows.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400; font-family: inter; color: #000000; font-size: 14pt;\">Effective May 1, 2026, Nasdaq revised its Nasdaq-100 inclusion rules, adopting a &#8220;fast entry&#8221; mechanism that allows any newly listed company ranking in the top 40 by market cap to enter the index after only 15 trading days, eliminating the previous minimum float and seasoning requirements.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400; font-family: inter; color: #000000; font-size: 14pt;\">This change was widely viewed as preparing the benchmark for mega-IPOs like SpaceX, which can now be added to the Nasdaq-100 quickly once trading begins.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400; font-family: inter; color: #000000; font-size: 14pt;\">For SpaceX, this means Nasdaq-100 inclusion could occur as soon as late June or early July 2026. The index is tracked by hundreds of products with hundreds of billions of dollars in combined assets under management, meaning index funds must mechanically buy SPCX \u2014 funded by equivalent selling of current constituents.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: inter; color: #000000; font-size: 14pt;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">That selling will hit the AI names hardest, simply because they are the largest weights; Nvidia, Microsoft, <\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-family: inter; font-size: 14pt;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.btse.com\/blog\/trade-aapl-perp-apple-product-launch-2026\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Apple<\/span><\/a><\/span><span style=\"font-family: inter; color: #000000; font-size: 14pt;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, and Alphabet face potentially significant passive selling precisely when retail FOMO is peaking around SPCX.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400; font-family: inter; color: #000000; font-size: 14pt;\">The S&amp;P 500 tells a different story. S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices has historically required sustained GAAP profitability for index inclusion and has not yet relaxed those rules for SpaceX, which has reported sizable GAAP losses as it invests in Starship and AI infrastructure.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400; font-family: inter; color: #000000; font-size: 14pt;\">This creates a split: SPCX will likely be in the Nasdaq-100 but not the S&amp;P 500 in the near term \u2014 a divergence that gives QQQ-tracking and SPY-tracking portfolios meaningfully different exposure to SpaceX and defers a substantial amount of additional passive demand.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span style=\"font-weight: 400; font-family: inter; color: #000000; line-height: 1.6;\">Estimated Performance: What Wall Street Is Saying<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400; font-family: inter; color: #000000; font-size: 14pt;\">Opinion is divided, but near-term sentiment skews bullish.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: inter; color: #000000; font-size: 14pt;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Morningstar\u2019s analysis of SpaceX\u2019s pre-IPO financials has <\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-family: inter; font-size: 14pt;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.morningstar.com\/stocks\/6-charts-spacexs-s-1-financials\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">flagged<\/span><\/a><\/span><span style=\"font-family: inter; color: #000000; font-size: 14pt;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> that the company screens as &#8220;significantly overvalued&#8221; at valuations around 1.7 trillion dollars, noting the heavy reliance on novel and still-unproven technologies.\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400; font-family: inter; color: #000000; font-size: 14pt;\">However, the same work also notes that with a relatively small free float, fast-track Nasdaq-100 inclusion, and broad investment bank support, the stock price could remain elevated and potentially rise in the early post-IPO period.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: inter; color: #000000; font-size: 14pt;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">ARK Invest, led by Cathie Wood, has publicly <\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-family: inter; font-size: 14pt;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.kucoin.com\/news\/flash\/bitcoin-shows-stronger-correlation-with-tech-stocks-than-gold-grayscale-reports\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">outlined<\/span><\/a><\/span><span style=\"font-family: inter; color: #000000; font-size: 14pt;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> scenarios where SpaceX reaches 2.5\u20133 trillion dollars in value by 2030, contingent on Starlink\u2019s dominance in satellite internet and continued progress on Mars logistics and AI infrastructure.\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: inter; color: #000000; font-size: 14pt;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Other Wall Street commentary, including analysts <\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-family: inter; font-size: 14pt;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/markets\/stocks\/articles\/starlink-now-drives-majority-spacexs-180000267.html\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">cited<\/span><\/a><\/span><span style=\"font-family: inter; color: #000000; font-size: 14pt;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> by outlets like Bloomberg and specialty fintech media, has floated the possibility that intense demand from both institutions and retail could push the stock toward multi-trillion-dollar territory in exuberant scenarios.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400; font-family: inter; color: #000000; font-size: 14pt;\">The revenue picture supports cautious optimism: analysts project mid-20s billions of revenue for 2026, with Starlink as the profitable core and xAI\u2019s compute business \u2014 including large-scale cloud and supercomputing deals \u2014 as an incremental growth driver in the second half of the year. As always, execution on these ambitious plans will determine whether early valuations are justified or stretched.<\/span><\/p>\n<h1><span style=\"font-weight: 400; font-family: inter; color: #000000; line-height: 1.6;\">Impact on Retail Investors<\/span><\/h1>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400; font-family: inter; color: #000000; font-size: 14pt;\">The SpaceX IPO is designed with retail investors in mind \u2014 but direct access to SPCX shares still requires navigating a traditional brokerage, regional restrictions, and an IPO allocation process that tends to favor institutions regardless of stated intent.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400; font-family: inter; color: #000000; font-size: 14pt;\">BTSE offers a different angle.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400; font-family: inter; color: #000000; font-size: 14pt;\">As the Nasdaq-100 rebalancing cascade plays out under the new inclusion rules, the most liquid and actionable opportunities won&#8217;t necessarily be in SPCX itself \u2014 they will often be in the AI and tech names being sold to fund its inclusion.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400; font-family: inter; color: #000000; font-size: 14pt;\">Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, and Alphabet are precisely the stocks that passive funds will be adjusting at scale, under time pressure, regardless of their fundamentals.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: inter; color: #000000; font-size: 14pt;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">BTSE\u2019s AI stock perpetuals let you <\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-family: inter; font-size: 14pt;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.btse.com\/blog\/leverage-trading-marvell-xle-blackberry-stock-perps\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">express<\/span><\/a><\/span><span style=\"font-family: inter; color: #000000; font-size: 14pt;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> views on those names with leverage, in USDT, from the same account you already use for BTC and other crypto assets.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400; font-family: inter; color: #000000; font-size: 14pt;\">The ripple effects will also extend into crypto. Given the increasingly tight relationship between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq over recent cycles, a volatile index rebalancing event is likely to produce turbulence in BTC and ETH as well.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400; font-family: inter; color: #000000; font-size: 14pt;\">Traders who can operate across both worlds simultaneously \u2014 holding an Nvidia perp in one direction and a BTC position in another, for example \u2014 are better equipped to navigate that environment than those locked into a single asset class.<\/span><\/p>\n<h1><span style=\"font-weight: 400; font-family: inter; color: #000000; line-height: 1.6;\">Outlook for the Rest of the Year<\/span><\/h1>\n<h2><span style=\"font-weight: 400; font-family: inter; color: #000000; line-height: 1.6;\">Parsing the Recent Dip \u2014 and Why We&#8217;re Optimistic<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400; font-family: inter; color: #000000; font-size: 14pt;\">June has been a challenging month for crypto.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400; font-family: inter; color: #000000; font-size: 14pt;\">Bitcoin has recently broken below key price milestones after a euphoric start to the year, even as U.S. stocks have pushed to or near record highs, creating a divergence that has unsettled some investors. AI tokens like Humanity Protocol and Ethena have offered pockets of strength following high-profile listings and integrations, but broad sentiment remains cautious.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400; font-family: inter; color: #000000; font-size: 14pt;\">Context matters here. The Q1 2026 drawdown \u2014 one of the most punishing since the FTX collapse \u2014 saw tens of billions of dollars in liquidations across leveraged products as BTC and ETH both corrected sharply from their peaks. The market entered 2026 with euphoria and received a reality check; the healing process takes time.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400; font-family: inter; color: #000000; font-size: 14pt;\">But the structural case remains intact \u2014 and arguably stronger than ever:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400; font-family: inter; color: #000000; font-size: 14pt;\">Stablecoin market capitalization has pushed to all-time highs in 2026, with circulating supply estimates exceeding 300 billion dollars, reflecting sustained on-chain dollar demand regardless of price action\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400; font-family: inter; color: #000000; font-size: 14pt;\">Corporate and institutional treasuries have continued to add Bitcoin exposure even during ETF outflow periods, signaling that long-horizon conviction is not easily shaken\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400; font-family: inter; color: #000000; font-size: 14pt;\">RWA tokenization has climbed into the tens of billions of dollars, demonstrating real on-chain usage of traditional financial instruments\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400; font-family: inter; color: #000000; font-size: 14pt;\">On-chain metrics tied to AI and agentic commerce, such as the number of AI-agent\u2013driven transactions, have surged, pointing to a new structural demand driver for blockchain infrastructure\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400; font-family: inter; color: #000000; font-size: 14pt;\">Multiple surveys of global institutional investors show a majority planning to expand digital asset exposure in 2026, with many targeting allocations above 5% of AUM\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400; font-family: inter; color: #000000; font-size: 14pt;\"><br \/>\nBitcoin reclaiming its 200-day EMA around the low-70,000 dollar region remains the clearest technical signal to watch for a durable trend reversal. The SpaceX IPO \u2014 whatever short-term turbulence it creates \u2014 is ultimately a massive injection of risk appetite into global markets via one of the most anticipated listings in history.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400; font-family: inter; color: #000000; font-size: 14pt;\">When the world&#8217;s most anticipated company begins trading, it tends to lift the mood across the entire tech-and-growth spectrum. Crypto, now tightly linked to that spectrum, stands to benefit.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400; font-family: inter; color: #000000; font-size: 14pt;\">The second half of 2026 is shaping up to be defined by a single theme: the mainstreaming of multi-asset, tech-first retail investing.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400; font-family: inter; color: #000000; font-size: 14pt;\">SpaceX isn&#8217;t just going public \u2014 it is becoming the symbol of a new era in which aerospace, AI infrastructure, and crypto have blurred into one interconnected risk asset category, one that moves fast, rewards the well-positioned, and waits for no one.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The biggest IPO in history is upon us.\u00a0\u00a0 SpaceX \u2014 the rocket company that put a car in orbit and made reusable rockets routine \u2014 is set to begin trading on the Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX on June 12.\u00a0 At a fixed price of 135 dollars per share and a valuation of about 1.77 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":16502,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[484],"tags":[598,599,597],"class_list":["post-16492","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-stock-analysis","tag-ai-stock-perpetuals","tag-nasdaq-100-rebalancing","tag-spacex-ipo-crypto"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.7 (Yoast SEO v27.8) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>How Will SpaceX Reshape the Market and Opportunities for Retail Traders? 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